A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach for forecasting exchange rates

Due to the high complexity and strong nonlinearity nature of foreign exchange rates, how to forecast foreign exchange rate accurately is regarded as a challenging research topic. Therefore, developing highly accurate forecasting method is of great significance to investors and policy makers. A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach to forecast foreign exchange rates is proposed in this paper. In the approach, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method is utilized to divide foreign exchange rates into a finite number of subcomponents; the support vector neural network (SVNN) technique is used to model and forecast each subcomponent respectively; another SVNN technique is utilized to integrate the forecasting results of each subcomponent to generate the final forecast results. To verify the superiority of the proposed approach, four major exchange rates were chosen for model comparison and evaluation. The experimental results indicate that our proposed VMD-SVNN-SVNN multiscale decomposition ensemble approach outperforms some other benchmarks in terms of forecasting accuracy and statistical tests. This demonstrates that our proposed VMD-SVNN-SVNN multiscale decomposition ensemble approach is promising for forecasting foreign exchange rates.     

政策不确定性对公司投融资行为的影响研究

本文以2003-2013年中国A股上市公司的财务数据和31个省市自治区地方官员的变动数据为样本,采用地方官员变动率作为地方政策不确定性的代理变量,研究了政策不确定性对企业投融资的影响。研究发现,政策不确定性显著降低企业的债权融资,但是对股权融资影响不显著。政策不确定性对企业投资的影响存在两种渠道,一是通过降低企业融资来影响投资,二是通过企业资本运作降低融资对投资的影响系数,即政策不确定性越高,企业债权和股权融资对投资的正向作用会越小,这种作用机制在国有企业、大企业等与政策联系紧密的企业中作用更为显著。融资可获得性是政策不确定性影响投资的重要前提之一,融资可获得性较小时,政策不确定性显著降低了企业投资;在融资可获得性较大时,政策不确定性影响不显著。加强长期制度建设,降低政策不确定性,对于稳增长具有重要意义。     

A fractional cointegration var analysis of exchange rate dynamics

In their seminal work, Baillie and Bollerslev (1994) carried out an analysis of deviations from the cointegrating relationship of seven important exchange rates. They suggested that the exchange rate series possess long memory and therefore such processes could be well described as fractionally integrated processes. Hence, the influence of shocks to the equilibrium exchange rates may only vanish at very long horizons. In this work we analyze the cointegrating structure of five exchange rates to the US dollar, namely the British pound, the Euro, the Swedish Krona, the Canadian Dollar and the Swiss Franc. The series possess long memory and we show that they can be modeled through fractional integration. In fact, standard cointegration is rejected with the more traditional Johansen CVAR methodology. By using the recently introduced Fractionally Cointegrated VAR by Johansen and Nielsen (2012) we provide a cointegrating relationship taking into account fractional integration.     

The role of the Securities and Exchange Commission in a developing economy: Implications for IFRS

Due to the widespread adoption of IFRSs throughout the world and little research on IFRS implementation in developing countries, this study investigates the role of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding IFRS implementation in a developing country. Adopting a mixed methodology (39 interviews and 1647 enforcement documents); the findings have raised concerns as to the adequacy of enforcement mechanisms in implementing IFRSs in Bangladesh. More specifically, only 2.6% of enforcement actions were issued over the period of 1998 to 2010. Political connectedness is the major contributing factor for uneven enforcement activities in Bangladesh. The study also finds that inconsistencies with accounting regulatory framework (Companies Act, BSEC ordinances and IFRSs), multiple regulators, and donor agencies' influence impede the effective implementation of IFRSs. The study also provides policy implications for local and national policy makers namely, IASB, the World Bank and the IMF to rethink about the regulation of IFRSs in developing countries.     

A novel profit cutting mechanism for Chinese Banks: Theory and Multi-dimensional evidence

As China’s macroeconomic growth faces increasing pressure from the global COVID-19 pandemic, a surprising and politically controversial phenomenon has emerged: the profitability of banks in China exceeded that of enterprises and non-financial industries. The People’s Bank of China and regulatory authorities have hence taken measures to incentivize banks to transfer part of their profits to enterprises, with the aim to stabilize enterprises and employment. This paper proposes a novel profit cutting mechanism focusing on loan structure adjustments to address the limitations of the current approach centering on lowering loan interest rates. The theoretical and empirical analysis show, at both the macro and micro level, that an increase in the proportion of credit loans can benefit the development of enterprises without weakening banks’ operating performance in the long term, leading to a Pareto improvement within enterprise-banking sectors. The findings suggest that banks in China should gradually adjust their loan structures by providing greater credit loan access to enterprises, either voluntarily or directed by policy.     

Exchange rate returns and volatility: the role of time-varying rare disaster risks

This paper provides empirical evidence to the theoretical claim that rare disaster risks have predictability for exchange rate returns and volatility using a nonparametric quantile-based methodology. Using dollar-based exchange rates for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the quantile-causality test shows that indeed rare disaster-risks affects both returns and volatility over the majority of their respective conditional distributions. In addition, these effects are much stronger when compared to those using the British pound, especially in terms of currency returns.     

我国出口汇率传递的非对称性:来自中日贸易的证据

文章扩展了Yang（2007）的厂商定价模型，对汇率传递非对称性、特点和成立条件进行理论分析，发现对称传递需要满足严格的条件，而现实中更常见的是非对称汇率传递。在一定条件下，商品需求弹性越大，越可能呈现出口国货币贬值传递率高而升值传递率低的特点。利用2000年1月至2011年12月我国出口日本的966种商品价格数据，发现汇率波动向价格传递具有非对称性：（1）人民币升值时，日元价格上涨较少；而贬值时，价格下降较多。我国出口商品的需求弹性较大，在日本市场上面对的是一个强竞争结构。（2）若月度升值超过一定幅度（测算约为2.43%），传递率又会有所上升，说明尽管日元价格易跌难涨，但在升值导致成本上涨较多、明显挤压利润时，厂商不得不适当提高日元售价。采用2000年至2018年9月日本从中国进口单位价值指数进行稳健性检验，得出类似结论。现阶段稳定的人民币名义汇率对我国出口企业是更为有利的。     

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONETARY AND MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

The emergence of macroprudential policies, implemented by central banks as a means of promoting financial stability, has raised many questions regarding the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. Given the limited number of studies available, this paper sheds light on this issue by providing a critical and systematic review of the literature. To this end, we divide the theoretical and empirical studies into two broad channels of borrowers – consisting of the cost of funds and the collateral constraint – and financial intermediaries – consisting of risk‐taking and payment systems. In spite of the existing ambiguity surrounding coordination issues between monetary and macroprudential policies, it is argued that monetary policy alone is not sufficient to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. Hence, macroprudential policies are needed to supplement monetary. In addition, we find that the role of the exchange rate is critical in the implementation of monetary and macroprudential policies in emerging markets, while volatile capital flows pose another challenge. In so far as how the arrangement of monetary and macroprudential policies varies across countries, key theoretical and policy implications have been identified.     

Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets

Using data on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, our empirical results show that the exchange rates of their currencies have adequate explanatory power in explaining their US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, particularly in the post-global financial crisis period. We develop a two-factor pricing model with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds in which the correlated factors are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in the low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track the market credit spreads.     

Developments in accounting regulation: A synthesis and annotated bibliography of evidence and commentary in the 2016 academic literature

In this paper key regulation-related findings and commentaries in the 2016 academic literature are synthesized in annotated form. This paper is one in a series of previously published annotated bibliographies published in this journal. Papers published in academic outlets including The Accounting Review, Journal of Accounting Research, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Contemporary Accounting Research, Accounting Horizons, The Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Journal of Business, Finance & Accounting, The Journal of Financial Reporting, Auditing A Journal of Practice and Theory, and Research in Accounting Regulation were reviewed for potential inclusion. The 2016 literature featured strong regulation-related threads as follows: financial accounting regulation, analysis of individual pronouncements, SEC regulatory activity and its impact, international financial reporting standards, income tax reporting, and auditing.